Pakistan has warned of a possible retaliation after India’s decisive strike on terrorist camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. But the big question is—can Pakistan afford a war? Modern wars demand huge funds, and Pakistan is already under heavy financial stress. It depends on foreign aid, especially from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), to keep its economy alive.
In contrast, India’s economic growth has given it much stronger military and financial strength over the years. Let’s understand how weak Pakistan’s monetary position is and why a military move against India seems highly unlikely.
India’s Economy Is 10 Times Bigger Than Pakistan’s
As per 2023 estimates, India’s economy is nearly 10 times larger than Pakistan’s. In 1975, India’s economy stood at $98 billion—about 9 times that of Pakistan. Though Pakistan narrowed the gap slightly in the 1990s, the difference widened again from 2000 onwards.
In 2000, Pakistan’s economy stood at just one-fourth of India’s. The gap grew sharply in the following years as India’s economy expanded rapidly, thanks to post-1991 economic reforms. By 2004, it became 5.6 times larger, 7.2 times in 2009, and reached nearly 9 times by 2019.
Regarding per capita income based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Pakistan had an edge in 1993. However, India caught up by 2007 and surpassed Pakistan by 2023. In 2023, Pakistan’s per capita income was $5,439 (PPP)—nearly half of India’s.
India’s Global Trade Is 17 Times Higher Than Pakistan
India’s global trade performance shows just how far ahead the country is regarding international business. In 1992, India’s exports were already 3 times more than Pakistan’s. This figure rose 6.6 times by 2003 and a massive 22 times in 2023.
Regarding total foreign trade (exports + imports), India was 17 times ahead of Pakistan in 2023. These numbers show India is deeply connected to the global economy, while Pakistan remains far behind.
Pakistan Is Heavily Dependent on IMF and Loans
Experts say wars are expensive, and countries need massive resources to support military action. Pakistan struggles to pay for its basic needs and runs to the IMF and other lenders for emergency financial help.
International bodies like the IMF offer assistance to avoid an economic collapse—not to fund wars. This limits Pakistan’s options. The country may hope for help from allies like China or Türkiye, but even they are unlikely to back a war financially.
China, for instance, lends carefully based on returns and future gains. Lending to a country with economic instability and war intentions might not be a risk China wants to take.
Can Pakistan Afford to Fight India?
In today’s time, a country cannot depend only on weapons. It also needs economic muscle to support its soldiers, buy new equipment, and handle the financial shock that war brings.
India’s stronger economy gives it this ability. Pakistan, which survives on foreign loans and grants, lacks the resources to go into a full-blown war. Even if it threatens or provokes, actual military engagement on a large scale would be risky and unsustainable for Pakistan.
Sources: Moneycontrol, World Bank
